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‘Home Value Decline Coming?’

  • Thu Aug 31 2017, 12:20 pm
By James D. York, PA

January 27th, 2017


‘Home Value Decline Coming?’


By James D. York, P.A.

In some parts of the country, home values may be headed for a decline this year. But in Florida—not so much.

Recent statistics from the Arch MI Risk Index indicate a 4% chance of home prices dropping in the next two years across the country. For the Sunshine State, though, it’s a mere 3% likelihood, considered a “low” risk status. To add perspective, it was 6% nationwide a year ago, and 8% the year before.

Overall U.S. risk stats for price drops are skewed by a limited number of states with economies that are heavily energy-dependent—North Dakota, Wyoming, Louisiana, West Virginia, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. A majority of states (37 total) are in the ‘minimal’ risk category, at less than 2 percent.

While acknowledging that home ownership is still challenging for many people despite low mortgage rates and employment growth, Dr. Ralph DeFranco, global chief economist for mortgage services of Arch Capital Services Inc., still feels that  inventory of homes on the market is the deciding factor. "While there are many negatives ranging from weak wage growth to a near-tripling of student debt over the past 10 years, rapid price growth suggests the supply shortfall is more important,” he says.

These are interesting times for buyers and sellers alike. Give us a call with any questions and concerns you might have! York’s invite you to email or call them at or 239-273-6727.


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York Real Estate Group consists of James, Michael, and Morgan York, Florida Realtors with Downing-Frye Realty. James York is the winner of the prestigious 2014 and 2015 SWFL People’s Choice Realtor Award. The group has over 25 years combined experience and over $275 million in sales transactions.  Visit The York Group website at for all current MLS listings of houses for sale in Naples, Marco, Bonita, and Estero. If you have other questions, the Yorks invite you to email or call them at or 239-273-6727.


BR Logo The data relating to real estate for sale on this Website comes in part from the Broker Reciprocity Program (BR Program) of these sources: M.L.S. of Naples, Inc., Bonita Springs-Estero Association of REALTORS®, Southwest Florida MLS (Gulf Coast), My Florida Regional MLS DBA Stellar MLS, Sanibel and Captiva Island Association of Realtors®. Properties listed with brokerage firms other than Featured Home Listings are marked with the BR House Icon and detailed information about them includes the name of the Listing Brokers. The properties displayed may not be all the properties available through the BR Program. The data is updated every 4 hours, but can be influenced by delays from various real estate companies entering data in MLS. Some properties that appear for sale on this website may subsequently have sold or may otherwise no longer be available. All properties are subject to price or other changes without notice. For the most current information, please contact us using this form, or click on the "Request Info or Appointment" button on the search results and detailed property pages.

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